|
The Usd was under pressure early in the session amid UK clearer and US investment bank bidding in Eur/Usd, while a US investment bank was a repeated seller of Usd/Jpy. However, the market was caught short by firm US data - Dec consumer confidence, Nov existing home sales, weekly job claims and the Dec Chicago PMI all coming in better than f/c. That saw the Usd swiftly reverse course amid sharply higher US Treasury yields as soft landing hopes were re-ignited by the data. Eur/Usd dropped from the 1.32 area though stalled in the mid 1.31s amid IMM bidding and caution regarding renewed sovereign bids. Usd/Jpy lifted to briefly break above 119, though ran into good sized exporter offers.
Existing home sales During November, sales of existing homes rose 0.6% m/m to a 6.28 mln pace, extending the 0.5% advance seen in the prior month. The reading brings the 3-month average to 6.24mn. The consensus was for a 1.4% decline during the period.In the single family market, sales rose 0.2% in Nov m/m, while the condo market improved from recent steady declines, with a 3.1% increase.
US consumer confidence data. The Conference Bd"s headline index for US consumer confidence rose to 109 from a revised 105.3 in November. That was better than the consensus for a 102 print. The present situation sub-index was up to 129.9 vs 125.4 last time while the "expectations" sub-index improved to 95.1 from 91.9 in November.
Chicago purchasing managers data for December are firmer than expected, with the headline activity index at 52.4 vs a prior 49.9 and expectations for a 50-or-less reading today. The orders index came in at 57.8 vs a prior 52.0. Orders backlog still soft at 45.8 vs 45.9. Employment index disappointing at 45.8 vs 49.4. Prices paid unchanged at 60.2.
US jobless claims data. New jobless claims for the week ended Dec 23rd rose by 1K to 317K from a revised 316K last time. That was a bit less than the consensus f/cast. The 4-week moving avg fell to 316K vs 326K before. The average is even with the year ago print and just under Nov"s average level.
ECB Mersch is repeating the already familiar ECB mantra that interest rates are still low and accomodative. His comments were made in an emailed press statement. He went on further to repeat that the dynamic economy and abundant liquidity pose inflation risks.
China stats bureau chief economist Yao Jingyuan expects 2006 GDP to have grown 10.5% y/y while 2006 CPI is seen at 1.3-1.4%. Industrial output is seen at 17% y/y, retail sales at 13% y/y.
UK nationwide house prices rose 1.2% m/m in Dec after a 1.4% increase in Nov. In annual terms , house price growth picked up to 10.5% from 9.6% in Nov. The data are clearly stronger than expected, continuing to surprise consensus expectations to the upside. The annual increase is now close to the highest in 2 years, with a clear upward trend for price growth seen over the course of 2006 vindicating bullish f/cs by the Nationwide.
BOJ FukuiI said personal consumption is on a rising trend. Fukui acknowledged there has been some weak data on consumption in July-Sep but otherwise "there is no change to the trend in which strong earnings in the corporate sector are filtering through to households." The number of jobs is steadily increasing and wages, including overtime pay, are on a rising trend. Personal consumption is also on an increasing trend.
Japan"s Nov industrial production rose 0.7% m/m, roughly in line with mkt forecast of 0.6% m/m. Indus production rose 4.8% y/y. METI said shipments rose 1.6% m/m while inventories rose 1.4% m/m (+4.9% y/y, +3.1% y/y resp). The inventory ratio rose 1.7% m/m from Oct (+0.1% y/y). METI maintained its assessment that indus production "is on an upward trend," for a sixth month after upgrading it in June by dropping the word "moderately."
|
